What are Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)?
Understanding Climate Change Projections
Introduction
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are greenhouse gas concentration trajectories adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to assess potential future climate change scenarios.
IPCC Scenario Development
The IPCC decided that new scenario development would be left to the research community. The RCP scenarios include only anthropogenic (human-caused) sources and use a single model to project emissions to abundances.
AR5 Scenarios Database
The IPCC AR5 Scenarios Database documents long-term scenarios reviewed in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Scenario Framework Paper 4 provides a detailed overview.
RCPs and Climate Change Projections
The IPCC's AR5 projected global mean sea-level rise by considering contributions from physical processes. Based on CMIP5 simulations, the rate of sea-level rise is very likely to exceed the observed rate during the 20th century for all RCP scenarios.
IPCC WGI AR5 Findings
The IPCC WGI AR5 concluded that human influence has very likely been the dominant cause of observed warming. The RCP database documents projections of emissions, concentrations, and land-cover changes for different RCPs.
AR5 and AR6 Scenario Comparison
The RCPs used in the IPCC's AR5 and AR6 reports project similar levels of warming under comparable emissions scenarios.
Defining RCPs
RCPs are referred to by the radiative imbalance in Watts per meter squared at the top of the atmosphere in 2100 (e.g., RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5).
RCP Uncertainties
Scenarios involve uncertainties in socioeconomic emissions and climate projections.
RCP 8.5 and Climate Policy
The RCP 8.5 scenario represents an extreme case with no assumed climate policy implementation. It demonstrates the potential impacts of high greenhouse gas emissions.
IPCC Scenario Development Process
The IPCC has developed and approved several scenario sets for climate research. New scenarios are periodically created to reflect advancements in knowledge.
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